Indirect survey estimates of basic numeracy among disadvantaged groups in sub-Saharan Africa

Numeracy skills are a crucial input for development, even more so than other educational components. We assess the numeracy of many population groups in Sub-Saharan African countries and their subnational regions. In particular, we identify the numeracy deficits of the most disadvantaged parts of the population. We use the strategy of measuring age misreporting (or “age-heaping”) to assess the basic numeracy of the working-age cohorts that are today (2020) in the age groups 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49 and older. This complements evidence on the numeracy of school children based on several surveys. We can study for the first time (and confirm) a high degree of persistence of numerical skills between different birth cohorts, as well as some interesting changes. We also find that social differences in numeracy are closely correlated with overall low numeracy. This can be observed most clearly in the belt stretching from Northeastern Mali via Niger, Northern Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia to Somalia. If the numeracy of the disadvantaged (i.e., the poorest 20%, people living in several rural regions, and women in low-numeracy regions) will be improved in the future, a strong contribution to overall development can be achieved.